What, If Anything, Would Make People Abandon Their Presidential Candidate in the Next Three Months?

By Bennett Fleming-Wood, Yonatan Margalit, and Brian Schaffner Tufts University

On January 23rd, 2016, Donald Trump boldly claimed: “…I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose any voters…” It was a soundbite that might have sunk presidential aspirations in the past, but in our current political climate it was merely an illustrative way of bringing attention to the profound negative partisanship that shapes our elections.

It also raises the question, what would Trump and Biden supporters say their candidate would have to do to lose their vote? On a recent wave of the Data for Progress COVID-19 tracking poll we asked this very question of them. Specifically, respondents who had earlier said that they were planning to vote for Biden or Trump in November were asked the following:

Please write one thing that [Joe Biden/Donald Trump] could do that would make you vote for someone else in November. If there is nothing he could do to make you vote for someone else, please just write that.

As we show, the responses to this question illustrate just how much many Americans dislike the other party. Indeed, the vast majority of those who have already picked a candidate indicate that nothing could change their minds, and many cite their dislike of the opposing candidate as the primary reason.

We coded all of the answers to this question and the graphic below shows how these responses were distributed for each candidate based on three broad groupings – those who said nothing would change their mind, those who gave a personal flaw in their candidate that could lead them to change their vote, and those who pointed to a policy-related reason that they might change their mind. (We excluded responses where respondents did not answer the question but instead used the space to express support for their candidate or rail against the other side.) People who said “nothing” were easily the largest percentage for both groups; about 67% of Trump supporters and 71% of Biden supporters said that there was nothing that would undermine their support for their candidate. Fewer than one-in-six cited personal flaws in their candidate that could potentially change their vote, while 19% of Trump voters and 15% of Biden voters mentioned policy-related reasons.

Of course, those who said that nothing could change their mind might be doing so because they like their candidate or they might be driven by their dislike for the opposing candidate. While many simply wrote the word “nothing,” others elaborated on why nothing would change their mind. Almost one-quarter of Biden supporters who said “nothing” mentioned Trump and Republicans in their responses and nearly one-tenth of Trump supporters who said “nothing” mentioned Biden and Democrats.

One response from a Trump supporter that illustrates this negative partisanship read, “There is nothing he could do. I will not vote for any idiot democrat socialist.” Similarly, a Biden supporter invoked Trump’s own infamous boast, stating, “he could ‘shoot someone on 5th avenue’ & I’d still vote against Trump.”

But what about those who did actually come up with a hypothetical reason that they would not vote for their candidate. In many cases, these hypothetical reasons were quite far-fetched. The graphs below show the percent of respondents providing various reasons that they might change their mind and vote for another candidate (excluding those who said nothing would change their minds). So, for example, among the Biden supporters who actually gave a hypothetical reason that they might vote for somebody else, about 7% cited Biden committing a heinous crime (such as the aforementioned 5th Avenue homicide) as a reason that they would switch their vote. By comparison, about 9% of Trump supporters who gave a reason they might change their vote cited criminal behavior as a reason.

The candidates’ hypothetical death or health issues were also frequently cited for both candidates – this accounted for around 15% of reasons that Trump supporters gave for why they might change their vote and 13% of vote changing motivations provided by Biden voters. For example, one Biden supporter said they’d change their vote if they “[saw] proof that he really is suffering from Dementia”.

In addition to these similarities, there are also some notable differences in the reasons given by Biden versus Trump supporters. Biden supporters were more concerned with issues of racism and their candidate’s economic policies than Trump supporters. About 22% of Biden supporters who gave a potential scenario where Biden could lose their vote said they would do so if Biden did something racist or ignored racism, while 4% of Trump supporters said the same. One Biden supporter explained that Biden could lose their vote if he were to “[m]ake racist comments and prove himself to be along the same line of thought as the current president.” 13% of Biden supporters who came up with a scenario cited economic policy concerns, while only 8% of Trump supporters did so. As one Trump supporter said, “[There’s] nothing he can do except to ruin the economy.”

Even in these responses, negative partisanship is frequently invoked. For example, one Trump-supporting respondent said that the only thing Trump could do to lose their vote is: “Assure us that he won’t punish the Marxist criminals that have been destroying our cities. But, there is no one else to vote for but Trump, the democrats will continue to destroy our society and economy, as they’ve been doing for decades.” Even though this person claimed that Trump could do something to lose their vote, they mostly used the space to bash Democrats.

Trump supporters who came up with a scenario were more concerned about their candidate’s COVID-19 response, with about 18% citing such concerns. Only 3% of Biden supporters who gave a potential reason said the same. Trump’s mishandling of the COVID-19 crisis and the current economic fallout of the pandemic are key reasons he is struggling in the polls. One Trump supporter said, “If Donald Trump could not handle the covid pandemic properly i would vote someone else”. Another said, “[Q]uit trying to lie about how he made the virus better and we are in good shape.” Altogether, around 5% of current Trump supporters indicated that COVID-19 conditions may yet cause them to abandon Trump.

Overall, it is clear that very few Biden or Trump supporters can envision a realistic scenario that would lead them to abandon their candidate. This is not surprising given how frequently these respondents expressed disdain for the opposing side. But there are some current Biden and Trump supporters who could be persuaded to abandon their candidate and it is significant that some current Trump supporters indicated that they may abandon the president if the pandemic continues to worsen as election day nears.

Bennett Fleming-Wood (@bennettfw36) is a rising senior majoring in political science at Tufts University.

Yonatan Margalit (@tunadahuman) is a rising junior majoring in political science at Tufts University.

Brian F. Schaffner (@b_schaffner) is the Newhouse Professor of Civic Studies at Tisch College and the Department of Political Science at Tufts University.