Hochul Leads Primary Field for NY Gov, James Most Viable Challenger
By Isa Alomran and Ryan O'Donnell
New Data for Progress polling analyzes the state of the upcoming New York State Democratic primary – measuring favorability, horse race, and head-to-head matchups for major statewide offices up for election. The candidates we tested for Governor have either taken steps to run or are possible challengers; we also tested a hypothetical head-to-head for New York State Comptroller and a hypothetical Attorney General horse race.
Kathy Hochul and Letitia James have high favorability among a potential pool of candidates for Governor
Among New York likely Democratic primary voters, we find that incumbent Governor Kathy Hochul has the highest favorability ratings (+40 net favorability) followed closely by New York Attorney General Letitia James (+37 net favorability).
New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams also has a favorable approval rating (+28 net favorability), though statewide Democratic primary voters are largely unaware of who he is; 44 percent of Democratic primary voters said they hadn’t heard enough about him to rate. Congressman Tom Suozzi, who would presumably enter the primary from the right, faces an even steeper climb in name recognition than Williams with 65 percent of these voters unaware of who he is.
Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and outgoing New York Mayor Bill de Blasio hold negative net favorability in the eyes of New York likely Democratic primary voters, with approval ratings of -6 points and -26 points, respectively.
Horse race polling shows Hochul in lead, James in second
We then tested likely candidates in a primary matchup. In a match-up that includes Cuomo, Hochul leads the field with 36 percent of likely voters throwing their support behind her, which may be attributed to the honeymoon period of her tenure for Democratic primary voters. James takes second place with 22 percent of the vote, while Cuomo is in third with 15 percent. Williams, Suozzi, and de Blasio trail in the single digits. Meanwhile, 11 percent of voters remain undecided.
In a field without Cuomo, Hochul gains an additional three points of support, while James gains two points. The third-place finisher in the poll is “Not sure,” with 16 percent of voters undecided. The other candidates again trail in the single digits.
In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup between Hochul and James, Hochul maintains a +11-point lead over James with 19 percent of voters undecided. Head-to-head matchups between Hochul and Cuomo and Hochul and Williams sees each trailing behind the current governor, who has a much larger +37-point lead and a +31-point lead, respectively – showing James as the most viable challenger to Hochul.
State of play for down-ballot statewide races shows Zephyr Teachout with lead for AG, statistical tie for hypothetical NYS Comptroller head-to-head
Data for Progress also tested the status of possible races for New York State Comptroller and Attorney General.
In a potential head-to-head match-up for State Comptroller, incumbent Thomas DiNapoli narrowly leads New York State Comptroller Scott Stringer — who lost his bid for New York City Mayor in June — by +1 point, with 37 percent of voters undecided between them. We would largely expect this race to test the turnout prowess of New York City’s voters against voters who live outside of the city.
In the hypothetical match-up for New York State Attorney General, we included candidates that have officially declared their bids for the office, as well as a number of candidates who have either taken steps to run or who could be potential challengers. At the time of this survey, former federal prosecutor Daniel Goldman, professor and activist Zephyr Teachout, and State Senator Shelly Mayer are the only candidates to have formally declared their bids for Attorney General. Assemblyman Clyde Vanel has also announced his intent to officially declare a run for office but has yet to do so.
In this race, we find that voters are largely undecided; 48 percent of voters are unsure of who they would support. Zephyr Teachout — who placed second in the primary for this office in 2018, behind James — leads the field, earning 15 percent of voter support. Congressman Sean Maloney places second with 8 percent of the vote, followed narrowly by Congresswoman Kathleen Rice, Queens District Attorney Melinda Katz, and Brooklyn District Attorney Eric Gonzalez, who all earn 7 percent of the vote. Daniel Goldman, meanwhile, has the support of 5 percent of voters, while the remaining candidates earn 2 percent or less support.
Methodology and full results
From November 16 to 17, 2021, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 528 likely Democratic primary voters in New York using SMS text-to-web to contact voters, the same methodology we used in the recent New York City mayoral primary. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, geography, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is ±4 percentage points.