Survey of Young Peoples’ Political Attitudes in Texas
By Anika Dandekar, David Guirgis, and Brian Burton
Texas has long been a top prize for Democrats. Despite aggressive Republican gerrymandering, Texas’s demographic shifts point toward Democratic gains in the future. As incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott seeks re-election in 2022 and Democrats seek to compete in a map stacked against them, young voters will play a major role in determining which party controls Congress. New Data for Progress polling of Texas residents ages 18 to 36, conducted in partnership with NextGen America, gauges the favorability and levels of support for the Democratic and Republican parties and current officeholders. Data for Progress also tested young Texans’ enthusiasm to vote and the issues that matter the most to them.
Beto O’Rourke Leads Among Young Voters, But Faces a Salience Gap
In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, O’Rourke leads Abbott by +17 points among young Texas residents. That includes 44 percent of Independents; 29 percent of Independents haven’t heard enough about him to decide. Among age groups, O’Rourke leads with both Texans aged 18-24 (46 percent) and Texans aged 25-36 (54 percent). While people not yet registered largely support O’Rourke, 26 percent of them remain undecided; among registered voters, 64 percent prefer O’Rourke over Abbott.
However, this lead is tempered by Republican enthusiasm for voting in general. While a strong number of young Texan residents are as enthusiastic or more enthusiastic about voting compared to 2020 – 63 percent overall – Republicans hold a +6-point advantage over Democrats when it comes to being more enthusiastic about voting in 2022, an off-cycle year, compared to the presidential election in 2020.
In Texas, it is Republicans who are most likely to believe that the country is headed in the wrong direction, a motivating factor to vote — and when asked about how likely they were to vote, 74 percent of Republicans stated they definitely or probably will vote, compared to only 64 percent of Democrats. While 77 percent of registered voters are as excited or more excited to vote this upcoming cycle, a majority of the unregistered respondents are less enthusiastic or don’t know whether or not they’ll vote in 2022.
In other words, Texas Democrats, the O’Rourke campaign, and progressive advocacy groups absolutely must prioritize enthusiasm and vote mobilization, both among self-identified Democrats and among unregistered young respondents overall.
Young Texans Overall Disapprove of Both their Governor and their Senators
Gov. Abbott, whose approval rating arguably never recovered from his disastrous response to the snowstorms Texas experienced last February, is underwater by -15 points across all Texans aged 18-36. In addition, both of Texas’s senators – John Cornyn and Ted Cruz – hold negative approval ratings across the range of young residents polled.
Across registration status, this trend holds. Gov. Abbott’s job performance continues to receive -15 points net disapproval, and among registered voters, Sens. Cruz and Cornyn hold -14- and -9-point disapproval ratings, respectively. Notably, among the unregistered, Gov. Abbott and Sen. Cruz both perform even worse: Abbott’s job performance is disapproved of by a -17-point margin, while Cruz receives a striking -27-point net disapproval rating. While Cornyn only holds -1 point of net disapproval, 57 percent of unregistered people don’t know enough about him to make a decision.
Young Texans Widely Approve of Democrats, Disapprove of Republicans Across Age Group and Registration Status
We find that the Democratic Party holds positive net favorability among young residents, with a net +8 points of favorability; this is mostly driven by a stark +22 points net support from residents aged 25-36. In contrast, the Republican Party is underwater, with a net favorability of -14 points; the only group to indicate positive support for Republicans are self-identified Republicans. While residents aged 18-24 currently hold negative favorability of both parties, Republicans are four points more underwater with that age group than are Democrats.
Across registration status, this trend holds. Democrats hold +8 points net favorability across registration status, strongly buoyed by a +38 points of net favorability among registered voters. Meanwhile, registered voters hold strongly unfavorable views of Republicans at -20 points. Among the unregistered, Democrats are a point underwater, but they still outperform Republicans by 5 points.
Among Young Texas Residents, Strengthening the Economy, Abortion Rights Among Top Issues
When polled on the top five most important issues facing young Texans, 52 percent of respondents believe that strengthening the economy is among the highest priorities, followed by increasing the minimum wage to $15 an hour (51 percent). It is clear that the economy is a top issue for young Texans headed into 2022.
Similarly, when young Texans were asked about their absolute top issue priority, we found these to be among the top issues these residents care about:
Strengthening the economy (18 percent)
Increasing the minimum wage to $15 an hour (17 percent)
Cancelling student loan debt (15 percent)
Reforming immigration laws and providing a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants (9 percent)
Ensuring access to safe abortions (9 percent)
That immigration and abortion are among the top issues for young Texans should not be surprising; after all, Texas is a border state and home of the most restrictive abortion law in the country. Gov. Abbott has chosen to center his re-election campaign on two issues — building a border wall and eliminating all abortions — that are widely unpopular among young voters. Of particular note: 60 percent of young Texans, both overall and across age groups, believe abortion should be legal. This includes almost 40 percent of Republicans and a majority of registered voters and unregistered people.
Takeaways
Young voters will be key to a Democratic victory in the 2022 gubernatorial race in Texas, but challenging trends regarding voter enthusiasm point to an uphill battle. While young voters largely support O’Rourke and Democrats over incumbent Republicans and the national party, Republican voters outpace Democrats in enthusiasm for the 2022 election. That mirrors the trends that led to losses in New Jersey and Virginia in 2021, and underscores the investment necessary to increase the urgency and saliency of the upcoming midterm.
Strengthening the economy and increasing the minimum wage are the top two issues among young Texans, mirroring trends seen in states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina. But abortion access has the potential to become a mobilizing issue for Texans in 2022, and young people across age groups and registration status are against Gov. Abbott’s stance on the issue.
Anika Dandekar is a polling analyst at Data for Progress.
Brian Burton (@Brian_C_Burton) is a senior analyst at Data for Progress.
David Guirgis is a writing fellow at Data for Progress.
Methodology
From December 8, 2021 to December 12, 2021, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 445 registered and unregistered residents in Texas between the ages of 18 and 36 using SMS and web panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of the voting age population using age, gender, education, race and registration status. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is ±5 percentage points.