California Voters are at Odds with Republicans Trying to Replace Newsom
By Gustavo Sanchez and Ethan Winter
From September 2 to 7, 2021, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 1,912 likely voters in California using SMS and web panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is ±2 percentage points.
As part of this survey, we asked likely voters in the state if they thought that the typical voter knows enough to cast an informed vote as part of Governor Gavin Newsom’s upcoming recall election. We find that a majority of likely voters in the state (51 percent) think that the typical voter does not know enough to cast an informed vote in this election. This includes both a majority of Democrats (52 percent) and Independent / Third party voters (56 percent). Republicans, meanwhile, are evenly divided at 46 percent.
We also asked voters about two policy positions that Newsom and Larry Elder hold that are related specifically to seniors. We find that a plurality of likely voters in the state (46 percent) have heard nothing at all about Elder’s support for privatizing Social Security. In addition, we find that a plurality of likely voters (41 percent) have also not heard anything at all about Newsom’s California Master Plan for Aging.
Lastly, we asked how different policy positions would or would not affect which candidate people plan to vote for. We find that a plurality of likely voters would be much less likely to vote for a candidate that wants to end the state’s mask mandate (45 percent), repeal the state’s vaccine mandates (46 percent), and privatize Social Security (36 percent). Newsom’s California Master Plan for Aging generally has low salience, though a plurality (29 percent) say they would be much or somewhat more likely to support a candidate that is in favor of it.
Gustavo Sanchez (@lgsanchezconde) is a Principal at Data for Progress.
Ethan Winter (@EthanBWinter) is a Senior Analyst at Data for Progress. You can email him at ethan@dataforprogress.org.