Portland Voters Are Ready to Vote Climate Leaders Into Office This November

By Kevin Hanley

As Portland voters gear up for a pivotal election for the city and its system of government, Data for Progress and Lead Locally teamed up to survey Portland voters about their views on key issues facing Oregon’s largest city.

When it comes to candidates for City Council, having a reputation as a climate leader is advantageous, as over two-thirds of Portland likely voters say they are more likely to vote for such a candidate, including 59% of Independents. Republicans, a minority in Portland, are the only demographic group surveyed who report being less likely to vote for a climate leader. College-educated voters (79%), voters under 45 (77%), and women (74%) are some of the strongest supporters of a climate leader. Few voters say they’d be less likely to vote for a climate leader, signaling that there is little downside for City Council candidates to lead on climate issues.

Next, respondents were asked about their support for new fossil fuel developments within Portland city limits. A strong majority of Portland voters (59%) oppose new fossil fuel developments within city limits, including 54% of Independents and a plurality of non-college voters (47%).

After being presented with brief descriptions of the Portland Clean Energy Community Benefits Fund (PCEF) and Zenith Energy’s “oil-by-rail” facility in Northwest Portland, respondents report feeling quite favorable toward the PCEF, while sentiments on Zenith Energy's facility are notably more negative. Nearly two-thirds of voters (65%) feel favorable about the PCEF, including a third who say they feel “very favorable” – an encouraging sign of intensity for feelings about the PCEF.  Meanwhile, a plurality view Zenith Energy’s “oil-by-rail” facility unfavorably, though sentiments are less intense here, as nearly a third of voters say they “haven’t heard enough to say.”

Similarly, we presented respondents with hypotheticals about a candidate who supports the PCEF and one who opposes Zenith Energy’s “oil-by-rail” facility (as two distinct questions). We find that nearly two-thirds of respondents report being more likely to vote for a candidate who supports strengthening the PCEF (64%). A plurality of voters also report being more likely to vote for a candidate who opposes Zenith Energy’s “oil-by-rail” facility (48%). In line with the facility’s favorability, nearly a third of voters say their vote wouldn’t be affected by a candidate's stance on the Zenith Energy facility.

Nevertheless, when presented with the opportunity to revoke Zenith Energy’s Land Use Compatibility Statement (LUCS), thereby shutting down the “oil-by-rail” facility, a plurality of voters (49%) support revoking the LUCS.

Voters were also informed about Zenith Energy’s commitments regarding its “oil-by-rail” facility, like halting the storage of crude oil in Portland and transitioning to biodiesel, and were then asked about how much they trust the company to follow through on these commitments. A majority of voters (58%) do not trust Zenith Energy to follow through on these commitments. While 35% of voters trust Zenith Energy somewhat to follow through, only 7% say they trust the company a lot.

Overall, these survey results reveal that Portland voters are ready to vote climate leaders into office and are pleased with current climate programs like the Portland Clean Energy Community Benefits Fund. Conversely, while fewer voters have fully formed opinions, it is clear that Zenith Energy’s “oil-by-rail” facility is not popular, and Portland voters do not trust Zenith Energy to follow through on the commitments it’s made to the city.

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Kevin Hanley (@kebhanley) is a senior analyst at Data for Progress.

Survey Methodology

From October 4 to 9, 2024, Data for Progress and Lead Locally conducted a survey of 579 likely voters in Portland, Oregon using SMS and web panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, geography, and 2020 recalled vote. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error associated with the sample size is ±4 percentage points. Results for subgroups of the sample are subject to increased margins of error. Partisanship reflected in tabulations is based on self-identified party affiliation, not partisan registration. For more information please visit dataforprogress.org/our-methodology.