Decision Time: A Final Look at the Swing Voters Who Could Decide the Election
Over the last five months, Data for Progress has released multiple reports on swing voters, based on a unique methodology considering factors like vote history and 2024 vote choice, to better understand the key voters who are still undecided ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
The composition and size of our swing voter sample have changed since our first report in May, with Kamala Harris likely capturing a large chunk of more liberal swing voters who were not certain to vote for Joe Biden, largely because of concerns over his age and perceived competence.
In a series of five pooled national surveys conducted from October 11-27, Data for Progress finds that the remaining swing voters represent about 5% of the electorate. This is a notable decline from past swing voter reports, suggesting that many previously undecided voters have decided on either Harris or Donald Trump.
The remaining set of swing voters are now the final voters who are not yet certain whether they will vote for Harris, Trump, or a third-party candidate — and likely the ones who are most difficult for Harris to capture.
Key Findings
Swing voters are most engaged with YouTube and Facebook.
At this point, swing voters have seen more ads from the Harris campaign than the Trump campaign.
What swing voters have heard about Harris’ agenda is more positive than what they’ve heard about Trump’s, but they can better explain what Trump stands for.
Swing voters generally trust Trump to handle the economy (their top issue this election), alongside immigration and national security. However, Harris has a trust advantage on some economic issues such as middle-class taxes and housing costs, as well as on abortion and health care.
Swing voters see Harris as more competent than Trump and as someone who is better at working across the aisle and fighting for people like them, while Trump is more patriotic, charismatic, and extreme.
What Swing Voters Are Hearing in the Media
When asked about media engagement within the past week, swing voters most frequently say they have engaged with YouTube (48%) and Facebook (45%). In general, swing voters consume traditional news sources, such as Fox News and CNN, considerably less than likely voters overall, but consume some forms of social media, such as Instagram and TikTok, at a similar rate (only options selected by at least 10% of respondents are shown in the chart below).
More than 8 in 10 swing voters have seen or heard presidential campaign ads this year. A plurality (40%) are hearing ads from both campaigns at the same rate, while 34% are hearing more ads from the Harris campaign than from the Trump campaign. Only 10% are hearing more ads from the Trump campaign.
Swing voters report hearing much less about Harris’ agenda, Trump’s agenda, and Project 2025 than likely voters overall. While 52% of likely voters overall have heard “a lot” about Harris’ agenda and 49% have heard “a lot” about Trump’s, these rates for swing voters are just 28% and 25%, respectively.
Swing voters who have heard “a lot” or “a little” about Harris’ agenda say they’ve heard a roughly equal mix of positive and negative content about it. However, a plurality of those who have heard “a lot” or “a little” about Trump’s agenda say they’ve heard mostly negative content.
However, despite hearing more positive things about Harris’ agenda, swing voters can better explain what Trump stands for (52%) rather than what Harris stands for (43%).
Views on Harris and Trump on the Key Issues
By a large margin, the top issue for swing voters this election is the economy, jobs, and inflation (30%), followed by programs like Social Security and Medicare (11%) and immigration (10%).
Consistent with likely voters overall, swing voters’ concern about the economy is overwhelmingly focused on inflation (63%), and those concerned about inflation are particularly concerned about the cost of food and groceries (62%).
Swing voters trust Trump more than Harris on immigration (+32), national security and foreign policy (+30), the Israel-Palestine conflict (+24), jobs and the economy (+23), inflation (+22), crime and public safety (+18), gun policy (+9), and threats to democracy (+8).
Swing voters trust Harris more to handle taxes on the middle class (+21), lower housing costs (+8), and support small businesses (+8).
Swing voters trust Trump more to manage trade policy (+28), lower gas prices (+22), reduce the debt (+15), protect domestic manufacturing jobs (+14), lower grocery costs (+10), and improve our infrastructure (+9). This is different from what we find among likely voters overall, who trust Harris slightly more on four of these (reducing the national debt, protecting domestic manufacturing jobs, lowering grocery costs, and improving our infrastructure).
Among swing voters, the two candidates fare similarly on increasing wages (Harris +2) and handling labor union policy (Trump +4).
Views on Key Attributes
Voters were also asked if they think the U.S. needs stable leadership to guide the country through its challenges, or if it needs significant changes to its political system to address current challenges.
While voters overall favor stable leadership over significant changes by a 64% to 32% margin, swing voters are more split — with 49% selecting stable leadership and 42% selecting significant changes.
Meanwhile, they believe that Trump is more patriotic (+31), extreme (+26), dangerous (+21), experienced (+17), and charismatic (+13) — and better at standing up to “woke” culture (+19), being the “law and order” candidate (+19), having a clear vision for the country (+12), and protecting our freedoms (+9) — than Harris.
They view Trump as the candidate who would bring more significant changes to the political system (+11), but are closely split on who would be a more stable leader (Trump +2).
Swing voters are relatively split on who is more honest (Harris +2) and authentic (Harris +4).
On average, nearly half (47%) of swing voters say they don’t know which candidate these statements best apply to. The three statements that swing voters feel most confident assessing — which candidate is more extreme (31% don’t know), which is more dangerous (34% don’t know), and which is more experienced (35% don’t know) — are all qualities that they more closely associate with Trump.
When asked whether they’re more concerned about Trump’s extremism or Harris’ liberal ideology, swing voters say they’re more concerned about Trump’s extremism (45%) than Harris’ liberal ideology (36%).
Takeaways
Broadly, swing voters are a group that is unenthusiastic about politics, consumes low amounts of political news, and feels less proud to live under the U.S. political system than likely voters overall. They’re a hard group to reach, and inherently unpredictable.
Even though swing voters are seeing Harris’ ads at a higher rate than Trump’s and have heard more about her agenda, they still say that they could better explain what Trump stands for. Trump also has a trust advantage with swing voters on their most important issue — the economy — as well as immigration.
However, as Election Day approaches, there are clear signs of hope for Harris in this survey. Swing voters view her as the better candidate on issues like abortion and health care, think she is more competent than Trump, and think she’d be better at working across the aisle and fighting for people like them. They feel more positive about Harris’ agenda than they do about Trump’s.
With less than a week until Election Day, the campaign that best connects with these voters in the coming days could be the one that controls the White House on January 20, 2025.
This report was authored by Lew Blank and Abby Springs, with contributions from Rob Todaro, Ryan O’Donnell, Danielle Deiseroth, and the entire Data for Progress team.