Vibe Check: Voter Enthusiasm and Harris’ Favorability Have Surged Since Biden’s Exit
By Lew Blank
New polling from Data for Progress shows that since President Joe Biden decided to drop out of the presidential race and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris on July 21, voters’ enthusiasm about the election and their favorability toward Harris have both surged, particularly among Democrats and Independents.
From the beginning of the year to when Biden decided to drop out, Harris was viewed favorably by an average of 41% of voters and unfavorably by an average of 54%. Since July 21, her average favorability rating has become net-positive, with 50% viewing her favorably and 48% viewing her unfavorably.
This includes a +11-point increase in average favorability among Democrats, a +19-point increase in average favorability among Independents who lean toward Democrats, and a +15-point increase in average favorability among Independents who don't lean toward either party.
Meanwhile, Biden and Donald Trump’s favorability ratings haven’t changed much since Biden dropped out. Since the beginning of the year, Biden’s favorability rating has averaged 43% and Trump’s has averaged 44%, with little variation.
Voter enthusiasm among Democrats and Independents has also spiked since Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee. Before Biden dropped out, an average of 41% of Democrats, 28% of Independents who lean toward Democrats, and 20% of Independents who don’t lean toward either party said they were more enthusiastic about voting in 2024 than usual. Since Biden’s exit, these numbers have risen to an average of 61%, 47%, and 27%, respectively.
Voters are also more content with their choices since Harris became the Democratic nominee. In two surveys conducted before Biden dropped out, voters were presented with a list of sentiments about the election and asked to select all that apply. Across these two surveys, an average of 39% of voters — including 40% of Democrats, 67% of Independents who lean toward Democrats, and 50% of Independents who don’t lean toward either party — selected “I wish we had different choices.”
Data for Progress asked the same question again in two surveys conducted after Biden dropped out. Across these surveys, the percentage of voters selecting that they wish we had different choices drops to 25%, including only 16% of Democrats, 31% of Independents who lean toward Democrats, and 40% of Independents who don’t lean toward either party.
In the first two surveys, an average of 20% of voters selected “I am excited,” including 19% of Democrats and 5% of Independents who lean toward Democrats.
In the two surveys conducted after Biden’s exit, the percentage of voters selecting that they feel excited about the election rises to an average of 25%, including 34% of Democrats and 27% of Independents who lean toward Democrats.
Voters also increasingly believe that the Democratic candidate is favored to win the 2024 presidential election. In a poll conducted in early July, 53% of voters said they thought Trump would beat Biden in a head-to-head matchup, while only 39% said Biden would win. However, a survey completed after Biden’s exit finds 46% of voters think Harris will beat Trump, compared with 44% who say Trump will win.
Data for Progress also tested favorability for Harris’ vice presidential pick, Tim Walz, and Trump’s vice presidential pick, JD Vance. The survey finds Walz has net-positive favorability (35% favorable, 32% unfavorable) while Vance has net-negative favorability (35% favorable, 43% unfavorable). More than 1 in 5 voters say they haven’t heard enough to form an opinion about either candidate.
Voters think Walz is a more effective vice presidential pick than Vance by a +8-point margin, including a +13-point margin among Independents.
Since President Joe Biden decided to drop out of the presidential race and not seek reelection, Democratic and Independent voters are significantly more enthusiastic about voting. Notably, Vice President Kamala Harris’ favorability rating has risen above Trump’s, and a plurality now believe she will win the election.
Lew Blank (@LewBlank) is a communications strategist at Data for Progress.
Cover photo attributed to Gage Skidmore.