Memo: NY-16 Poll Results
By Sean McElwee, Co-founder of Data for Progress;
Ryan O’Donnell, Senior Data Science Advisor,
Data for Progress; Henry Hoglund, Senior Polling Advisor, Data for Progress
From 9/9-9/13, Data for Progress polled a sample of all registered Democrats via text-to-web across NY-16 using a commercial voter file. Data for Progress surveyed 578 registered Democratic in-district respondents. Respondents who said they were “definitely not” going to vote in the upcoming congressional primary were excluded. The following results use a propensity score weighting method that weights on a number of political and demographic characteristics. The margin of error is +/- 5.7% with a 95% confidence interval. These results should be looked at as the broadest interpretation of the electorate. There are 250,000 registered Democrats in the 16th, and only 30,000 of them voted in last year’s Congressional primary.
Executive Summary
Our central finding is a field in flux, which isn’t uncommon nine months out. Six in ten registered Democrats are undecided, and under a third are firmly in Engel’s camp. Bowman has been able to break through more than Ghebreghiorgis, and commands more support in the horserace and higher name identification.
When asked about a generic liberal challenger, 20 percent of registered Democrats support a more liberal challenger and almost half are undecided.
Half of registered Democrats in the 16th could not ascribe an ideology to Congressman Engel.
Half of registered Democrats in the 16th identify themselves as “very liberal” or “liberal.
