The three days between South Carolina and Super Tuesday have been perhaps the most eventful of the race. Billionaire Tom Steyer, Former Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Amy Klobuchar each dropped out of the race, with the latter two throwing their support behind Joe Biden. These new polls show the state of the race before Super Tuesday. A tighter race with only two candidates poised for delegates nearly everywhere.
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On March 3rd Democrats across more than a dozen states will go to the polls in an event dubbed Super Tuesday. More than 1,300 delegates, or nearly one-third of the total, will be in play.
As part of Data for Progress’s polling this Democratic primary season we have asked questions not only about the current state of the race but also about support for progressive policies among primary voters. Here, we present our results for support for a Green New Deal (GND) in a host of Super Tuesday states.
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Tomorrow, Nevada will caucus. The Nevada caucuses have been undercovered by the media, but the state is the first test of how Democrats perform with Democrats of color. We find that Senator Bernie Sanders is poised for a strong victory, with Warren, Biden and Warren all lumped together. Sanders has 35 percent of the vote.
However, as with climate change, some politicians are stepping forward with proposals to change the “take, make, and dispose” model of our modern, so-called “linear economies,” with zero-waste “circular economies.” Last year, Ilhan Omar (D-MN) introduced the Zero Waste Act in the United States Congress and the European Commission adopted its ambitious Circular Economy Plan.
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Data for Progress conducted a poll of 766 likely Nevada caucusgoers from 2/12/2020 through 2/15/2020. Likely caucusgoers were identified from the Nevada voter file and weighted to a likely electorate. Our margin of error is +/- 3.4 percent.
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The NH Primary is an extremely close race between Senator Bernie Sanders and former mayor Pete Buttigieg, with Sanders in the lead by 2 points (28 percent to 26 percent).
Former Vice-President Joe Biden continues to show signs of extreme weakness, coming in at fifth place with 9 percent of the vote, behind Senator Elizabeth Warren (14 percent) and Senator Amy Klobuchar (13 percent).
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A fundamental change is taking place within the Democratic Party. For decades, Democrats feared being called “liberal,” let alone “progressive.” Indeed, it was President Bill Clinton who declared the “era of big government” to be over. Now, however, Bernie Sanders, a senator from Vermont and a self-professed democratic socialist, is a frontrunner in the Democratic Party’s presidential primary. And it’s not just Sanders. First-year Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rose to prominence following her endorsement by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), and she has quickly become one of the most recognizable and popular figures in the party.
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Our poll shows a field in immense flux, but with Senator Bernie Sanders in the lead with 22 percent of the vote and Senator Elizabeth Warren in second with 19 percent of the vote. Former Vice President Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg are tied in third with 18 percent of the vote. Senator Amy Klobuchar has 9 percent.
In a caucus, final delegate count is what really matters. After reallocation of delegates from candidates not clearing the viability threshold in each precinct, we estimate Sanders to have 28 percent of the vote, Warren to have 25 percent of the vote, Biden to have 24 percent of the vote and Buttigieg to have 22 percent of the vote.
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To understand how the issue of Medicare For All is viewed among South Carolina’s Democratic electorate, we fielded a survey of 767 likely voters in South Carolina’s Democratic presidential primary. The randomized survey was conducted from December 19 through December 29, 2019 for Medicare For All NOW. (For brevity, Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents will be referred to as Democrats throughout this memo.) As outlined below, the poll finds strong support for Medicare for All, among all demographic groups in the Democratic primary electorate.
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The Democratic primary election for the 2020 Senate nomination in Texas is in flux, with retired US Air Force Major MJ Hegar, labor organizer Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, and state Senator Royce West in the strongest positions for a possible runoff election. Hegar leads the pack, with 18 percent of the vote, followed by Tzintzún Ramirez and West, who are tied at 13 percent.
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Earlier this year, Data For Progress released a Green New Deal scorecard to identify which candidates have released plans to address Data For Progress’s 48 elements of a Green New Deal.
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To study a targeting program, the variable of interest is not wins or losses, but closeness of margin to zero, since the goal is to direct money where it has the most chance of influencing the outcome(and accepting some loses in the process). Too high of a win rate suggests that resources are not being optimally allocated to the most competitive seats, and too low of a win rate suggests that either the program is not successful, or that resources are again not being optimally allocated.
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Over the last several years, progressives have increased their focus on how American political institutions are biased against groups in the Democratic coalition such as people of color, working class people, and young people. Efforts to increase access to the ballot box, reduce gerrymandering, and abolish the electoral college have gained attention, as have efforts to reform the Supreme Court. However, the most antidemocratic institution in America has received relatively little scrutiny: the United States Senate.
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Data for Progress conducted a poll from November 15 through 25, 2019, in the state of Delaware, to assess the upcoming Democratic primary race for Chris Coons’s Senate seat. Senator Coons has been serving as the Junior Senator from Delaware since 2010. The primary election in Delaware is separate from the state’s presidential primary, and will occur in September 2020. Despite Hillary Clinton winning Delaware by over 10 points, Senator Coons currently sits as the eleventh-most-likely Democrat to vote with the president, according to FiveThirtyEight’s tally of support for President Trump’s policies.
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Since we launched our Green New Deal scorecard, Democratic candidates — moderates and progressives alike — have released plans that leverage more ambitious emissions targets, a broader array of federal policy tools, and more robust jobs and justice programs.
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President Donald Trump currently trails the three leading Democratic candidates in the 2020 U.S. presidential election, both nationally and within most of the key battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina.
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As the Democratic primary heats up, Democratic presidential candidates have begun sharing their plans to pay for Medicare for All. As part of our most recent survey, we polled some of these ideas alongside a series of items probing American voters’ attitudes toward healthcare, the health insurance industry, and Medicare for All. This memo briefly summarizes the results.
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From 9/9-9/13, Data for Progress polled a sample of all registered Democrats via text-to-web across NY-16 using a commercial voter file. Data for Progress surveyed 578 registered Democratic in-district respondents. Respondents who said they were “definitely not” going to vote in the upcoming congressional primary were excluded. The following results use a propensity score weighting method that weights on a number of political and demographic characteristics. The margin of error is +/- 5.7% with a 95% confidence interval. These results should be looked at as the broadest interpretation of the electorate. There are 250,000 registered Democrats in the 16th, and only 30,000 of them voted in last year’s Congressional primary.
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By Mijin Cha, Data for Progress Senior Fellow
Executive Summary
The climate crisis cannot be ignored any longer. Climate change is happening now and immediate, bold action must be taken to stave off the worst impacts. Greenhouse gas emissions and other key pollutants must be drastically reduced in a short time frame. At the same time, we must act to protect workers and communities negatively impacted by the transition away from fossil fuels. Failing to do so will increase economic inequality and hardship for the very communities and workers that have sacrificed life and livelihood to provide the energy that built our economy.
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